Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

There are many methods to use to reach a conclusion. Since they all involve fallible people like me, most of the methods are fallible. Expect requests for further study. Anticipate them and ask others to study alongside you from the beginning.

Arriving at a conclusion is a primary task of an engineer, scientist, adviser, consultant, and many other people. My task is to have a summary of the situation and state that summary to someone who has an interest in the situation.

There are many ways that I can reach a conclusion. Here are a few.

[1] I start with a blank sheet of paper in front of me. I observe as much as I can while writing as much as I can on the paper. I study my observations. I reach a conclusion

Ah, the perfect way to do it. But there are others. For example,

[2] I have a conclusion in mind – a really strong conclusion in mind. I observe what I can. I remember every observation that reinforces my conclusion. My original conclusion is correct.

Maybe [2] isn’t the most honest method of reaching a conclusion, but I have used it many times and I have see other people use it a hundred times more than me.

Folly? Perhaps not. Consider this variations of method [2].

[2a] While a senior in college (many years ago), a professor led the class through a derivation of a circuit that would give a desired result. The professor did not begin with the solution, he honestly worked through the steps to reach a circuit design. We built the circuit per the design. It flopped miserably. We went back through the derivation and found terrible mistakes. None of us, however, saw any of the mistakes the first time. How could all of us have followed this mistaken path?

Another story:

[3] Ten years ago at work, a sister organization discovers a latent defect in a satellite (already in orbit). They are about to launch a second satellite and realize that the same defect is in part, but not all, of the second satellite. They devise a strategy to fix the defect, test a little, and launch. They explain their strategy to a review board.

Does [3] sound familiar? It should as it is another variation of [2] – the conclusion looking only for evidence that supports it. While [3] was in progress, several of us questioned its validity. We attempted to convince the review board that [3] was just like [2] and [2a]. We were scolded for not being “team players.” (see footnote)

Again, there are many ways we can reach a conclusion. Some are more valid than others. When I am the person reaching a conclusion it is difficult for me to understand whether I used method [1] or method [2]. I guess that is because I am spending as much energy as possible on the problem.

Expect people to want to analyze your conclusion. Expect people to request the time to study the situation from start to finish for themselves. Expect them to reach a different conclusion, and then the two of you have to start from scratch and work through the situation together.

Here is a resource-saving recommendation:

Don’t work to find a conclusion by myself. Ask other people to find the conclusion with me.

More eyes and brains usually do a better job.

Footnote: Story [3] has a happy ending. The second satellite launched and worked as intended. Perhaps our sister organization was lucky.