Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

People don’t predict the future well. A problems is that we attempt to predict the future often. Failing to predict the future can bring labels like “liar” and “moron.” Take care when you are about to predict the future.

People often predict the future. Let’s change that a little: people often attempt to predict the future.

Consider a couple of examples of attempting to predict the future: (1) estimating tasks on projects and (2) making commitments of what you will do.

(1) Many of us are on projects where we are employed. It is inevitable for a project planner to ask, “how long will it take you to do so-and-so on the next project?” This isn’t hard to answer if

• the next project is just like the last project
• the people working on the next project are the same as who worked on the last project
• the task is just like it was on the last project
• and a few other things being just like they were on the last project.

A few small problems:

• the next project is different from the last project
• the people working on the next project will be different from those on the last project
• the task will be different from what it was on the last project
• and a lot of other things will be different from the last project

If the actual work on the next project is within 20% of your estimate, you did well at estimating. Really, you did well. One thing though, no one will say you did well. Instead, they will complain about your lousy estimate.

(2) We often make commitments of things we will do. “This year, I will eat fewer deserts and more vegetables.” Few people expect that prediction to come true. Few people beside myself will be affected when that prediction doesn’t come true.

A commitment that is a bit more serious could be, “This year, I will stop meddling in my engineers’ work and stick to managing.” If this prediction doesn’t come true, several bad things will occur: my engineers will be unhappy with me, I won’t manage well, and all of us will be disgusted.

There are many things that can affect my commitment to my self and the engineers. I could have the best intentions, but still fail to meet my commitment.

We don’t predict the future well; we fail often. A big problem is that failing to predict the future brings bad labels. That is right, not bad results although the results will be bad enough, but we will have bad labels.

Two of the bad labels are (1) liar and (2) moron.

I say something will be so; that something doesn’t become so. A person who tells the truth does what he says he will do. A liar says one thing and does another.

I say something will be so; that something doesn’t become so. I am a moron as someone who knows what he is doing makes predictions that come true.

Take great care when predicting the future. We often fail, and in addition to bad results, we can receive bad labels.