Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

It is possible to predict the future on projects. It is also possible to change the future on projects. Knowing this second property and how to state it can make a big difference to project stakeholders.

It is possible to predict the future. Given a system-building project that has been planned properly, you can track the progress using earned value, critical path, and good communication. These tools will allow you to predict the future of the project. It is really pretty simple as the rate at which work has been accomplished indicates that rate at which work will be accomplished.

I was once in a situation where a project was a quarter of the way through. The project was 20 percent behind schedule at that point. I calmly predicted that the project would finish at least 20 percent behind schedule – more likely 30 percent behind schedule.

A representative of the users went berserk. “How in the world could this happen? This is terrible. What do you mean it will be late?” Explanations were not in order at the time.

My boss pulled me aside later for a discussion. He understood what I was saying, but the user representative didn’t understand. “Well,” I said, “let’s explain it to him. Let’s teach him about earned value and such.” That idea didn’t go far. Come to think of it, none of the ideas went anywhere on that project in that situation.

What I didn’t know at the time was that while the status tools we were using were good for predicting the future of a project, those predictions were still changeable. Discussions of the future of the projects needed a new phrase that began with the word “unless.” For example,

This project will finish 20 percent behind schedule.

could be worded,

Unless we do something different, this project will finish 20 percent behind schedule.

Aha, there is a possibility of changing the future. I have seen the second statement be true. I worked on projects where everything pointed to being late, being over budget, or both. Things changed; mostly the people changed, and the outcome changed.

Rewind back to that bad day when the user representative went berserk. I wish I would have said,

Unless we do something different, this project will be at least 20 percent behind schedule – more likely 30 percent behind schedule. AND I know what we can do different and how we can do it. Let me show you.