Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

Take great care when everyone agrees about something.

Once the world was plagued with the longitude problem. Long-distance sea travel was dangerous and fraught with the great unknown, “where are we?!?!?!?”

Everyone agreed on the solution to the longitude problem. Everyone, that is, except the carpenter who solved the problem. For background, see the Wikipedia article on John Harrison—the carpenter who solved the problem, and the problem in general and the culture surrounding it in another Wikipedia article.

Of course the history is slanted because some people won with the solution and some people lost with the solution. That is the nature of science, engineering, and solving problems. I recommend the hours required for detailed reading. This was a real problem that tilted the world’s economy.

One lesson from this history: Take great care when everyone agrees on a problem. This is especially true when we can’t measure the problem and have to use a lot of approximations and extrapolations.

Consider climate change. The world’s economy rests on this issue. The temperature curves we have use a lot of approximations and extrapolations. The persons doing these approximations and extrapolations are well educated, smart, and caring people. All those people who knew the answer to the longitude problem were also educated, smart, and caring people. They held the great majority of opinion. They were wrong.

This happens with great unknowns. When we “solve” climate change, some people will win big $$$ and some people will lose big $$$. There will be great debate, controversy, and all sorts of grievous vexations.