Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

We predict the future poorly. We know we do. What we don’t seem to realize is how often we predict the future.

We predict the future poorly. Very poorly. Very, very poorly. Which among us predicted ChatGPT would arrive? And then become that fastest adopted system ever? I am waiting. Okay, I didn’t predict it. Who predicted that a virus from China would allow many of us to work from home, forever? Not me.

Sigh, if predicting the future was easy… well, I don’t know what that would mean.

Another problem with predicting the future is that we still try to do it—often.

“This is a temporary measure.” That’s a prediction of the future.

“I’ll see you tomorrow.” Another prediction of the future. We get that one right most of the time.

How about rephrasing these things.

“I think and hope we only have to do this a little while. Things will change, and we won’t have to do this any longer.”

“If all goes well, I’ll be back here tomorrow and so will you.”

Wait, do we have to do those things? Must we be so literal? No, we don’t. Life is already too complex to toss in all these caveats to what we say.

Still, let’s consider what we are doing. Let’s realize when we are predicting the future and remember how poorly we predict the future.

Is the future we are predicting costly? Some temporary structures cost hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars. Being back here tomorrow to see you again costs just about nothing.

Are our predictions of the future merely hopes and dreams? Remember that “hope is not a plan” or something like that.

Are we merely too busy and tired to do anything but (poorly) predict the future? My experience is that “busy-ness” and fatigue are the reasons most of the time.

Yikes. I am too busy and too tired to think. My response is to predict the future. I don’t predict the future well. I predict the future poorly. Back to where I started.

Here is a prediction: I will continue to predict the future (poorly).

I hope that prediction is wrong, too.