Working Up

by Dwayne Phillips

Happy Thanksgiving Day. In America, this is Thanksgiving Day. Something about the fourth Thursday in November or something.

We attribute this to folks in our history who were thankful that they had a good harvest and had stored enough crops to sustain them through the winter. Their children would not die this winter.

I have never had a situation where I doubted if my children would live through the winter. Food has never been short of supply. There has always been a roof, warm and dry beds, and clothing. Food, shelter, clothing—never been a worry.

Thank you God.

by Dwayne Phillips

Expert systems live on after 40 years. Well, sort of.

I worked in artificial intelligence research in the mid-1980s. We had an AI boom in that decade. Then a winter and a boom or two since then.

Back in 1985, we had “expert systems.” (I am old enough to remember this. I was there.) Have one of your human experts talk to an AI researcher about their expertise. The AI researcher would write software that captured the expertise. That software would run 24/7, never become tired, never take a day off, and never make mistakes from fatigue.

Believe it or not, the idea worked. Some businesses actually used the idea to their great benefit. Most folks bought into the marketing hype, were disappointed in reality (reality always seems to be less than market hype), and gave up. Hence, an AI winter.

Today? Here we go again. Sure, companies are hiring people in the developing world (Is that what we call it today? I am not sure.) for a dollar a day to say, “Yes, that is right. No, that is wrong,” when shown pictures of cats, dogs, giraffes, etc.

Not reported as much is the trend in hiring actual experts and paying them real salaries to check the answers from systems that only actual experts could check. Is that a fracture or a bad x-ray? Is that a correct proof to a theorem? Is that argument logical?

Experts training AI systems. Hmm, sounds like expert-based systems. Sounds like expert systems.

We’ve come a long ways in 40 years. Right? Have we? Maybe.

by Dwayne Phillips

One of the oldest phrases in computing is still true. Rats. Some folks thought AI would fix this.

If I meant to find the sum of 2 and 3 but typed 2+4, I would have the wrong answer. Rats. Inputing the wrong information produces the wrong output. So said Charles Babbage some 120 years ago and so have said countless others since.

No worries. AI will fix all this. AI will find the answer we seek in a great big pile of stuff we have. We know the answer is there. Some agentic chattering bot avatar will find it for us and write a concise essay on the topic. Right?

Well, probably not. I am sure I put that document in here somewhere. Well, maybe I didn’t. Multiply that uncertainty by a number (maybe 1,000 or maybe 1,000,000,000) and I have more uncertainty. Okay, my colleagues did it, right? Probably not them either.

It seems we are back to the same old thing: if I am diligent everyday and record things as I should and put them in the right place at the right time, things will go better for me.

Sigh, I thought all these new tools would relieve me of the need for diligence. I continue to wish. I could do better. I guess we all should.

by Dwayne Phillips

Here come new tools. Adopt them or lose your job? Probably not.

Yet more recent news about big tech eliminating jobs due to AI. Or perhaps they were eliminated because those companies simply hired too many people and they weren’t doing much of anything on the job. Here are more thoughts on the topic.

I guess I should provide some thoughts as this is my blog and all that. Okay, here is my take: new tools can eliminate jobs. That what new tools do. Nothing new here.

To eliminate jobs, folks need to jump into the new tools, work harder and smarter, and produce
That takes initiative and energy. My guess is that about 1% of folks on the job have that initiative
energy.

About 49% of folks on the job will use a new AI tool to do something they don’t want to do,
but still take the same amount of time to do the job because they are hiding from their boss.
The other 50% will just sort of keep doing what they’ve always done until someone bothers them.

Is that cynical and pessimistic? I don’t think so. Folk, jobs are important. They provide the money to feed, clothe, and house families. Many people at work come to work and try hard now and then so they can have the money needed to feed, clothe, and house their families. Their job, however, is not the most important thing in the world. They have other things in their lives that are far more important.

I find that good and honest, not cynical and pessimistic.

Yes, some of these new AI tools will reduce the need for some people to be doing the same old thing. I wish those people well and hope they find jobs to care for their families. Is this a turning point in the history of the world and the workplace? Perhaps, but not likely. We have come through plagues and such and other things that were much worse. We will come through this one as well.

by Dwayne Phillips

Sometimes I can do more than my job. I can exceed and excel. I recommend caution.

I read an editorial recently about newspapers. Perhaps that editorial was agreeable or not as it delved into the politics of the English language (thoughtful and fraught with peril). The topic was journalism, journalists, and journal-ing.

Journalists who engage in journalism journal, i.e., they write the news of the day. The news of the day is sufficient. Sometimes the news of the day is less than more and hence the saying, “the dog days of summer.” So be it—continue to journal.

It seems that many journalists over many years time were not content with journal-ing and wanted to excel and exceed. Hmm. How did that work out? Not too good as newspapers are dead, online newspapers are dead, and folks read my book of faces et al. for the news.

The demise of the journal-ing crowd provides caution to just about everyone: when bored and wanting to excel and exceed, do so with caution. Try to think things through. That is an attempt at predicting the future, something we usually fail, but is worth a try.

If I exceed my job, I will probably lose my job. Perhaps that is what I want. Perhaps my exceeding leads to a new and desired job. Perhaps I want to keep my current job. In the latter case, don’t exceed unless I exceed as a side hobby.

Let’s think this through. We can do better.

by Dwayne Phillips

Sometimes you concede or yield to another person’s experience in a situation. Folks seem to hate that.

“You have more experience with this type of thing or this type of situation. I yield to your judgement here.”

Seems like that is pretty reasonable and wise. Folks seem to hate it. What is wanted is some general or universal admission that I am inferior in all situations at all times. The insinuation that I may have better expertise some of the time is taken as just that—an insinuation. That word sounds bad. It means something bad, but it sounds really bad.

Still, when superior experience or knowledge is present—concede. No one has to be superior in all things at all times. No one ever has to be superior at any thing at any time. Let’s do the work and move on.

by Dwayne Phillips

Revisiting an old post in a new era. The idea is pretty good now more than ever.

Way back in 2009, I wrote a little post about the magic words, “Up until now.” These words imply that, while I have always lacked something or other, I can change my future and not be tied to the past.

This past week, I read something in the Washington Post about cuts in government spending and employment and gosh golly the world was coming to an end. The article ended with:

The two employees said they cannot imagine how their agency is going to fare with the current wave of cases.

To which I hopefully add, “up until now.” In the past, they could not imagine how their agency is going to fare. Now, however, they can. They can imagine how. They can change.

I am not naive. I know that article is about politics and political parties and philosophies and all those things. Still, we can change. We can sit and sigh and sulk for a moment because someone has done something that turns our world the wrong way. Then the moment is over. This is a new moment with new possibilities. We are not tied to the past. We can do things differently. Yes, we can. Let’s do better.

by Dwayne Phillips

An old book refreshes how to write to someone else.

I recently found an old book—old meaning 40 years old. “How to use the power of the printed word” was published in 1985. It comprises a dozen essays from famous folks of that day about writing and reading and such.

I am still early in the collection of essays. The first essay is from Malcolm Forbes. He writes about writing a business letter. His little bit of advice is:

Write the entire letter from his point of view

The letter is about the other person. It is from their point of view about their situation in their life and their business with their people. Instead of beginning with, “My name is Dwayne and I want a job working for you.” Begin with, “You have built an organization of folks who serve the public with your great public-serving things… I wish to work alongside your folks and serve the public…” Or something like that.

It is about the other person—not me. Sure, I come in later, but I come in later. The other person is first. Describe the other person’s situation. Describe the change that I can bring as if the change already exists. That means to write in the present tense. “Your folks know linear algebra and that allows them to do this and that to better serve the public.” Later, I wish to bring my background in linear algebra.

It is about the other person. Simple. Easy to forget. Let’s not forget.

by Dwayne Phillips

Everyone is building a big(ger) datacenter. Fine. Let’s use some sense while we are at it.

Everyone is building a big(ger) datacenter. If you are going to build one, you must build it bigger than the one across the fence. Louisiana building a $10 Billion datacenter? Mississippi must build a $15 Billion datacenter. And Texas, well everything is bigger in Texas.

Okay, lots of concrete and steel and copper wiring and here come all those computers. Big money. Many jobs during construction and a few jobs during operation.

And all those computers produce heat.

Let’s use some sense here folks. Pipe that heat to the nearby people to heat their homes in the winter and heat water the rest of the year. Good grief, let’s not build the world’s largest air conditioner. That is nonsense.

And then there is water. Water helps cool the computers. Run the water around in a circle so it cools the computers and then cools itself. Down the drain? Nonsense. Evaporate? Nonsense.

Let’s use some sense. Cost too much? Good grief. How much? Those who use the computing power in these datacenters are the richest companies in the history of the world. They can afford a few pennies here and there.

Let’s use some sense.

by Dwayne Phillips

Let’s consider what it means to be responsible.

Responsible

Responsable

response able

able to respond

Are you responsible for something?

No, that’s not my responsibility! Oh, you are completely unable to respond to that?
Well, no, but er uh how did I get into this conversation?